 IAmEric
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| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
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Ok. I've got a crazy idea...
The entire concept of "loose monetary policy" couldn't happen under the old gold standard. Since oil is already priced in USD (mostly... although I seem to remember reading that changing somewhat), why not introduce an "oil standard"?
Yeah, I know that is lame and would lead to the same problems of the gold standard (only faster), but conceptually, what could be done to force some discipline between prices of physical versus financial assets? |
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 MadMax
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"what could be done to force some discipline between prices of physical versus financial assets?"
Why should this be an objective? |
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 IAmEric
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| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
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| What you know you can't explain, but you feel it. You've felt it your entire life, that there's something wrong with the world. You don't know what it is, but it's there, like a splinter in your mind, driving you mad. |
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 IAmEric
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| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
| Total Posts: 2961 |
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Sorry for the cryptic response. I was in a rush and my icon has given me liberty to be a bit more pagan than usual 
Take a look at this, but turn the story around...
Why Interest Rates Will Fall in 1982 December 14, 1981 This article appeared on the Op-ed page of the Wall Street Journal December 14, 1981.
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 MadMax
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you mean it is your gut feeling, that's all. Have you been contaminated by traders ?  |
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 AndyM
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Went to see the captain, strangest I could find, Laid my proposition down, laid it on the line. I wont slave for beggars pay, likewise gold and jewels, But I would slave to learn the way to sink your ship of fools.
Ship of fools on a cruel sea, ship of fools sail away from me. It was later than I thought when I first believed you, Now I cannot share your laughter, ship of fools.
Saw your first ship sink and drown, from rockin of the boat, And all that could not sink or swim was just left there to float. I wont leave you drifting down, but woh it makes me wild, With thirty years upon my head to have you call me child.
Ship of fools on a cruel sea, ship of fools sail away from me. It was later than I thought when I first believed you, Now I cannot share your laughter, ship of fools.
The bottles stand as empty, as they were filled before. Time there was and plenty, but from that cup no more. Though I could not caution all, I still might warn a few: Dont lend your hand to raise no flag atop no ship of fools.
Ship of fools on a cruel sea, ship of fools sail away from me. It was later than I thought, when I first believed you, Now I cannot share your laughter, ship of fools.
It was later than I thought when I first believed you, Now I cannot share your laughter, ship of fools. |
You never give me your money,
You only give me your funny paper |
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I'm not sure how an oil standard would work in practice, but I think it is related to the proposals for a commodity reserve currency which were developed by Frank Graham and Benjamin Graham during World War II, and later on refined and submitted to UNCTAD in 1964 by Hart, Kaldor and Tinbergen. Milton Friedman was a strong opponent. I don't know what happened to the idea subsequently, though there do seem to be scattered papers about it almost to this day.
Returning to the original idea: Suppose we had an oil standard, and "peak oil" becomes a reality. Then as the supply of oil dried up, there would be drastic deflation. As prices collapsed, so would credit, as it did in the early 1930s. Would we have another Great Depression? |
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This is actually the album cover for the studio version:

Though of course the live versions are much better. |
We are awakened with the axe, night of the living dead at last |
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 IAmEric
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| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
| Total Posts: 2961 |
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Thanks doctorwes 
That is exactly why I toss out whacky ideas like that. Otherwise, it would have taken me a lot longer to stumble on Graham's ideas of "commodity reserve currency". That is not far from what I had in mind.
From here:
Benjamin Graham also proposed the adoption of a "commodity-reserve currency". This would work effectively like a Gold Standard, except that backing up currency would not be that single volatile commodity, gold, but rather an entire basket of commodities. Gold and money fluctuate in their purchasing power of staple commodities. The "gold reserves" which previously determined the supply of money in the Gold Standard would be replaced with the very "commodity reserves" of the ever-normal granary, thus anchoring the money supply to real purchasing power, impervious to political manipulation (as in the modern system) and far more stable than a single commodity (as in the Gold Standard). |
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Milton Friedman published a well-known critique of that proposal in 1951. I haven't read it, but it's probably worth tracking down. It clearly didn't kill off the idea.
By the way, the "commodity reserve" proposal was put forward by Keynes in 1942, but scuttled due to political opposition. I think it would have been a good idea in 1945. I'm not sure how you'd implement it now.
For example, if we'd adopted a commodity reserve currency in (say) 2000, I guess that means there would have been massive deflation from 2001-2006 (especially from 2004-2006) as commodity prices surged. I think that would have been enough to trigger a wave of defaults and a global recession, which would in turn have cut off the commodities boom, I suppose. So it would have been stabilizing, I imagine, but not in a good way. |
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 IAmEric
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| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
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| I'm not too surprised my two favorite guys (Graham and Keynes) supported the idea. Makes perfect sense to me. And whether stabilization comes in a good or bad way depends on your definition of "good". Personally, I think a recession now and then is good for the economy ("forest fire monetary policy"). Economic Darwinism! |
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| Personally, I think a bout of the 'flu now and then is good for one's health, so I try to avoid giving my daughter warm clothing when the weather turns cold. |
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 IAmEric
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| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
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This is Sparta! 
I'm not sure a child is a good analogy for the economy. What would "excess liquidity" correspond to?
"Forests" or "earthquakes" seem more appropriate to me. Something susceptible to catastrophes when there is build up of "potential energy".
I'd rather clear out the timber once in a while to avoid the inferno.
I'd rather have a bunch of small earthquakes to avoid the big one.
Etc etc.
The theme is shaking out the weakest links before they take over the joint.
Oh wait! I got it. A child and cell phone minutes...
I'd rather put up with mini fits on a daily basis than put up with the total rebellion when you switch off the phone for a couple of days at the end of the month  |
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| Hey, I think I've heard that earthquake metaphor somewhere else... |
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 apine
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first, everyone must have heard by now that illness is not caused by temperature but by small, invisible creatures called germs.
second, why is it that you think that our rate of pulling commodities out of the ground is a good benchmark for the supply of money? okay, so you feel that economic policy has been mishandled. so do i. but putting the oil fields in control of the economy seems to be spurious correlation at best and potentially a complete disaster.
instead you might want to consider a targeted growth rate. start with population growth rates + targeted inflation. so money grows at 4% (2% population + 2% targeted inflation) per annum. and there are seasonal adjustments -- one of the main reasons for the fed in the first place.
gotta hop for now. been reading both threads. now time to put kids to bed. |
People can't stand two things - randomness and responsibility. -- Art Cashin |
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There's a large literature on nominal income growth targeting. A simple nominal growth policy rule is equivalent to a Taylor rule with the same coefficient on output and inflation. You wouldn't expect that to be optimal - it would be a remarkable coincidence, wouldn't it? - and studies, e.g. by Rudebusch, show that it probably isn't.
The counterargument is that nominal growth is observable, whereas real growth and inflation aren't, and the way they're measured is contentious. If optimal policy requires commitment on the part of the central bank, and the private sector can only understand commitment in relation to a policy rule involving economic variables whose interpretation is not contentious, then policy rules which involve nominal growth may be the only ones which make sense in a rational expectations framework that makes allowances for what variables the private sector trusts the central bank to measure "properly".
I often wonder whether the discussion of "choice of units" near the beginning of Keynes' General Theory, which most people seem to ignore, is worth trying to understand after all. |
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 IAmEric
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| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
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Hey, I think I've heard that earthquake metaphor somewhere else...
I thought the same thing when it came up the other day. I mentioned that idea more than a year ago at Taco Time! 
[Ok. I don't expect others to understand that last comment ]
second, why is it that you think that our rate of pulling commodities out of the ground is a good benchmark for the supply of money?
I think it is a better benchmark than pulling money out of our %$#es. As for the reasons why it is reasonable, I defer to Graham and Keynes. They can enunciate it much better than I could anyway.
Storage and Stability: A Modern Ever-Normal Granary
When Benjamin Graham wrote Storage and Stability in 1937, the world was in the midst of the Great Depression. Written as a blueprint for economic recovery, the book was designed to spur both governments and the public to greater financial awareness. Based upon years of research and economic modeling, Graham's new theories focused on the inherent importance of supply and demand, production and consumption, and their inherent influences on value investing.
Storage and Stability outlines Graham's revolutionary plan for regulating supply and demand, stabilizing prices, and stimulating financial recovery. With disciplined thought and determined logic the author presents a specific strategy for collecting an excess of raw materials in a commodity reserve on a self-financing basis and then making it available for consumption when needed. According to Graham, this innovative storage plan would then serve to adjust supply and demand, stabilize prices, and increase the overall standard of living.
World Commodities and World Currency
In Storage and Stability, Graham proposed and described a specific plan to produce and store raw materials so that they could then become available as needed, with the ultimate aim of adjusting supply to demand, stabilizing prices, and increasing the standard of living on a domestic level. In World Commodities and World Currency, Graham offers a more global analysis of the systems that could reduce dangerous cycles of price instability in order to achieve stability in a postwar economy. Graham, in an astonishing display of foresight, shows how commodity reserves should play an important part in any economic policy.
Throughout the book, Graham maintains that stabilization of commodities offers a comparatively simple technique by which the world could achieve the fourfold objective of foreign-exchange stability, reasonable price stability, protective stockpiles, and -- most importantly -- a balanced expansion of the world's output and consumption of useful goods.
Readers today will discover that this landmark book has timely interest. In the aftermath of the Asian currencies collapse, and in the face of the organization of the European Common Union and the merging of European banks into a European Central Bank with one common currency, Graham's warnings about the dangers of a floating currency and his trenchant corrective prescriptions bear even greater relevance than ever. |
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As Graham and Keynes pointed out, the existence of international stockpiles that are very large relative to global output is the key to making the system work.* This might have been achievable immediately after WWII because output was depressed, but it would be a lot more difficult to achieve today, when global growth is very strong. It seems to me that the process of accumulating such buffer stocks before the system could be implemented would create a demand shock that would drive up the price of commodities in the interim, so that at the point when the standard was adopted, prices of other goods and services would be fixed at an undesirably low level. There must be a way around this problem, but I can't think of one right now.
*The gold standard actually depended on this too, and when central bank gold reserves got too low, it stopped functioning well. |
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Wow, a guy takes a few days vacation and misses the most interesting conversations.
Having read a paper by Keynes, my habit is to always follow with something by Hayek, and vice versa.
This Hayek paper: http://www.iea.org.uk/files/upld-book409pdf?.pdf has some interesting ideas about granting the ability to issue currency to the common man, but I don't think it's practical. It's still an interesting paper, based on when it came out (mid-70s, after Nixon had reneged on his promises to follow the Chicago school), and its criticisms of the Keynesian view. If nothing else, it's an interesting look at how frustrated Hayek was becoming in the days before Thatcher and Reagan.
Back to the topic of a commodity-linked currency, I wonder how you would decide which commodities get included? I start with the premise that the purpose of such a thing is to link to 'real' assets (non-financial, in phorgy terms), so that governments would lose the ability to have loose monetary policy. In that case, should real estate count? The difference with real estate is that it is not so easily measured, one unit of real estate can't be easily measured. But what about wheat or orange juice? They can be measured in standardized units, but they are different in that they are the result of a production process, and if you include them you're giving a lot of power to certain producers, purely because their output is easily measured. There's room to argue that all commodities fall into that category, like Apine said: it's just a measurement of how fast you pull certain things out of the ground.
Even water could be a candidate commodity for the index. You may chuckle, but it fits all of the same criteria of oil and gold, and what if there is a global draught? It would become very valuable. Water water everywhere, and not a drop to spend.
-t. |
Any advertisement in public space that gives you no choice whether you see it or not is yours. It belongs to you. It's yours to take, re-arrange, and re-use. Asking for permission is like asking to keep a rock someone just threw at your head. -Banksy, street artist (b. 1974) |
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 apine
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as much as i would like to, i am unable to read two books on the subject right now. let alone in time to comment for this thread. as part of the conversation, i guess i figured that you would provide a bit of the insight in those books in addition to the reference. although cutting and pasting the ad that went with them was a nice touch.
from what i gathered from what was written there is supposed to be a storehouse of the commodities which is then added to or drawn down. and that means that either there is a formula for that or people decide on the add or draw. if people are in charge, there is no difference from a federal reserve system. if there is a hard formula then first, no politician will vote for it and second, inevitably some hiccup will come along sending the system haywire. the gold standard happened to be VERY inflationary if you lived in Spain in the 16th century as gold was taken out of the new world to the old. and those that suffer under a regime take it to the street and vote. turn of the century there was a populist movement looking to add silver to gold in order to expand the money supply to help indebted farmers.
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People can't stand two things - randomness and responsibility. -- Art Cashin |
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 IAmEric
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| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
| Total Posts: 2961 |
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Hi apine,
When you asked your question, I was shutting down my PC for the day. Any curtness was unintentional. By posting those book reviews, I was telling you everything I know (which obviously isn't much). As you can see how this thread evolved, I went from knowing zero to knowing slightly more than zero, i.e. just what doctorwes told me and what I could gather from those web pages. Didn't mean it to sound like I was blowing off your idea or anything. I'm open to just about everything now. Your criticism of commodity-reserve currencies makes perfect sense although I'm fairly confident Graham and Keynes would have thought through that. Only way to find out is to read the references, which I would certainly do if I could clone myself. I would like to get around to it, but like you, putting kids to bed, etc etc.
tristanreid, why would someone laugh about including water? Makes perfect sense to me too 
doctorwes, I'm not sure there would need to be an international stockpile. I think the idea would be to have national stockpiles and manage monetary/commodity policy that way. The same price shocks would probably occur though.
One thing that guarantees this commodity-reserve currency idea won't work is that the US probably doesn't have the most commodities. The country with the strongest military ultimately determines international monetary policy. |
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| Since almost all productive processes involve labor, perhaps a sound basis for a currency standard would be, not gold or commodities, but people. In accordance with the labor theory of value, prices of goods and services would be quoted in terms of standardized hours of labor. In place of gold reserves or commodity stockpiles, central banks would maintain dormitories of workers who had volunteered to act as "labor reserves" instead of actually working. Cheap economy class plane tickets would make it straightforward to transfer reserves between central banks. And if central bank dormitories were coed, reserves would grow at a rate approximate equal to population growth as a whole (perhaps a bit more rapidly since they would not be working). |
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Yes but DrWes, a blackout could be highly deflationary, the speed of money could increase in the dark.
IAE: The reason not to use water is that a liter of Disani doesn't cost the same as a liter of Evian. Actually, put Frank Herbert's books on the list that you don't have time to read, the Dune series is a good place to start for water economics.
apine: if people are in charge, there is no difference from a federal reserve system That was Hayek's criticism also. I think everyone agrees that regardless of the mechanism, freedom from political pressure is a crucial element, he writes that a government can never attain that sort of system. I think the position of the Fed does a decent but imperfect job at this. It is interesting to me, though, to try to think of ways to tie monetary policy to some sort of free market mechanism. Maybe not commodities, but I think there's still something there. It's not immediately evident that it would be better, just an interesting thought. Some people seem to think of capitalism like stem cells. Got acne? Just rub some of these stem cells on it, that'll fix you right up. And if not capitalism, are there other non-discretionary mechanisms, such as some sort of tie to employment numbers. Did I just start down the path to DoctorWes's labor reserves?!?
-t. |
Any advertisement in public space that gives you no choice whether you see it or not is yours. It belongs to you. It's yours to take, re-arrange, and re-use. Asking for permission is like asking to keep a rock someone just threw at your head. -Banksy, street artist (b. 1974) |
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 Johnny
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| Under the gold standard the price of an oz of gold was fixed in Dollar terms (or more like, the price of a Dollar was fixed in gold terms). Presumably under the IAE commodity basket, the price of one basket {1 ton copper, 57 bushels wheat, 48 barrels oil, etc} would be fixed in Dollar terms. Two potential difficulties that come to mind are (1) the information contained in the (floating) prices of the commodities would be lost and (2) the relative prices of the commodities would become fixed. Both of these would have knock on effects on (dis)incentives to develop new technologies for obtaining the commodities and for using the commodities. But perhaps the NP collective mind can think of a way around these difficulties? |
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