 Omega
|
|
| Total Posts: 261 |
| Joined: Jul 2006 |
| |
|
anyone care to give their opinion on this? ie.. is this a disaster....merely delaying the inevitable....??? |
|
|
|
 |
|
Too busy to type much right now, 2 quick observations:
1. Fed confused at least a few people, bonds spiked up on announcement until it dawned on buyers that they're not adjusting the fed funds target rate. (Yet.)
2. Lowering discount rate instead of fed funds target rate makes kinda perverted sense in that Fed doesn't want to be seen propping up equities, even though that may be a factor. Fed funds futures skeptical.
Poole refusing questions doesn't help. Infighting at the Fed?
Edit: Yeah, King Canute does come to mind. |
|
|
 |
 Omega
|
|
| Total Posts: 261 |
| Joined: Jul 2006 |
| |
|
| similar thoughts....The Fed has lost the plot IMHO |
|
|
|
 |
 IAmEric
|
| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
| Total Posts: 2961 |
| Joined: Oct 2004 |
| |
|
| I think it is a smart move. The first sign that Bernanke isn't as bad as Greenspan. |
|
|
 |
|
I think it is a smart move. The first sign that Bernanke isn't as bad as Greenspan.
Care to elaborate on this? I agree that boosting liquidity even modestly right now will be extremely helpful but I'm not sure that G-Span would have acted differently in this circumstance. Sure he was a bit compulsive about inflation but he gave the system liquidity when it really needed it. In 98 after Russia the discount window borrowing rate went from 5 to 4.50. Same magnitude move we are seeing here. You do realize that the target rate isn't changing, the secured lending rate is? |
We are awakened with the axe, night of the living dead at last |
|
|
 |
 FDAXHunter
|
| Founding Member |
| Total Posts: 7526 |
| Joined: Mar 2004 |
| |
|
| I'd like to know what IAmEric is going on about as well. Greenspan was adamant about making sure that bubbles didn't end up as complete disasters. He was well known to provide liquidity in times of crisis. So how is Bernanke better than Greenspan? |
On tue un homme, on est un assassin. On en tue des millions, on est un conquérant. On les tue tous, on est Dieu. |
|
 |
|
So how is Bernanke better than Greenspan?
The only metric I can conclusively say that Bernanke has Greenspan bested on this soon into his tenure is facial hair. Bernanke's beard is M-A-N-L-Y!!!! |
We are awakened with the axe, night of the living dead at last |
|
|
 |
 FDAXHunter
|
| Founding Member |
| Total Posts: 7526 |
| Joined: Mar 2004 |
| |
|
| Well, yeah, but let's see if Bernanke will be able to marry a 40 year old once he turns 70.... |
On tue un homme, on est un assassin. On en tue des millions, on est un conquérant. On les tue tous, on est Dieu. |
|
 |
 Omega
|
|
| Total Posts: 261 |
| Joined: Jul 2006 |
| |
|
| Is this why the financial stocks went up yesterday then. They knew in advance about this change....or that there were moves to create this change.....Unless I'm mistaken it is the banks who are the main beneficiarys of this change.....Smacks of insider dealing |
|
|
|
 |
 uranasss
|
|
| Total Posts: 160 |
| Joined: Mar 2007 |
| |
|
Smacks of insider dealing
Nah, just prudent shorts covering on rumours...sometimes rumours are true
I'd also like to hear IAE's reasoning... |
It all boils down to two things: squeezes and liquidations. |
|
 |
 Omega
|
|
| Total Posts: 261 |
| Joined: Jul 2006 |
| |
|
hmmmmmmm
I never heard these rumours....and I was watching Bloomberg anbd CNBC....I dont know..Maybe I've just been over worked this week and am feeling ultra cynical and paranoid right now.....I'm still not convinced this was a good move by the Fed |
|
|
|
 |
|
"I never heard these rumours....and I was watching Bloomberg anbd CNBC"
Shocker. |
"First God, then man, horse, dog. Then women. Then rat." |
|
 |
 IAmEric
|
| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
| Total Posts: 2961 |
| Joined: Oct 2004 |
| |
|
| Greenspan would have already cut the Fed rate by 1% (or more). That kind of behavior is what got us here. Cutting the discount rate while keeping the target rate at 5.25% makes sense. Nothing more nothing less. |
|
|
|
 |
 Omega
|
|
| Total Posts: 261 |
| Joined: Jul 2006 |
| |
|
| yeah yeah..I know..The more I've watched these channels the last 2 days the more crap they seem to be coming out with.....Maria Baritomo is the worst...but now I'm deviating from teh thread |
|
|
 |
 ynot
|
|
| Total Posts: 62 |
| Joined: May 2005 |
| |
|
Omega according to an email sent by a Bloomberg monkey "of course you could have seen this coming if you'd managed to take a look at {ffip GO} fed funds propability calculator!".
See, it's that easy!
Y. |
|
|
|
 |
 Omega
|
|
| Total Posts: 261 |
| Joined: Jul 2006 |
| |
|
| dont have bloomberg..but i was watching CNBC last night. 8pm london time...Maria and bob pisani coming out with absolute garbage....market going up so it is bull.....market is gonig down so it is bear....I mean..these guys get paid $250k a year to come out with that......???? |
|
|
 |
 FDAXHunter
|
| Founding Member |
| Total Posts: 7526 |
| Joined: Mar 2004 |
| |
|
| Omega... are you losing money? Because if you are... it sort of shows. |
On tue un homme, on est un assassin. On en tue des millions, on est un conquérant. On les tue tous, on est Dieu. |
|
|
 |
 Omega
|
|
| Total Posts: 261 |
| Joined: Jul 2006 |
| |
|
| I wasnt up until the time the Fed made their move...then i got proper burnt |
|
|
 |
|
these guys get paid $250k a year to come out with that
Not to further break your heart but Bartiromo clears multiples of 250K per year and gets to fly around with powerful business types to boot.
Greenspan would have already cut the Fed rate by 1% (or more).
http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc/fundsrate.htm
Please, don't let facts get in the way of your hyperbole but a quick check would reveal this to be pretty much untrue. Taking 98 (which was worse than this crisis has been to this point) to be a good comp (an article of faith no doubt, but bear with me) we saw three rate cuts for a total of 75bps by mid november. This is a full 3 months after the default and two months after things started getting extremely nasty. Lo and behold target rates were back to pre crisis levels by mid November 99. It looks like an effective use of policy to get through a crisis to me.
Now you can fall into the camp that will blame the fed policy for the run-up in home prices and ultimately the housing bubble. That's well and good, but cheap fed funds do not a bubble make. It takes a great deal of complacancy from the whole financial community to ignore the facts which are now so blindingly obvious and had been obvious to most people paying attention for the past 5 years. If you want to make a substantial loan to somebody and require less verification than it would take to get a Sears card be my guest, just don't cry to me when you get hurt. There's a lot of pain out there right now and there's not a single fucking person feeling it who doesn't deserve it. Idiotic borrowers, opportunistic originators, greedy investors, lax rating agencies, traders with tunnel vision, bankers with short time horizons, every last one of them is getting stomped (including yours truly). It's their own goddamned fault so don't put it at old Alan's doorstep.
And for the record, I'm not in the camp that thinks Greenspan is one step removed from Jesus, I just belive he performed more than adequately in an extremely difficult job. |
We are awakened with the axe, night of the living dead at last |
|
|
 |
 Energetic
|
| Forum Captain |
| Total Posts: 1381 |
| Joined: Jun 2004 |
| |
|
I'm with you, roddy. Yet another club to join. In some way at least, the times are good  |
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong. - H. L. Mencken |
|
 |
 FDAXHunter
|
| Founding Member |
| Total Posts: 7526 |
| Joined: Mar 2004 |
| |
|
IAmEric: Greenspan would have already cut the Fed rate by 1% (or more)
Interesting theory... I just spoke to Alan on the phone and he said he would not have done any such thing. |
On tue un homme, on est un assassin. On en tue des millions, on est un conquérant. On les tue tous, on est Dieu. |
|
|
 |
 IAmEric
|
| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
| Total Posts: 2961 |
| Joined: Oct 2004 |
| |
|
Hi rrp,
You are certainly entitled to your opinion. I hope it has served you well. Comparing this to 1998 may be justified, maybe not. I think not.
The data you yourself supplied shows 8 - 50 bp drops and 3 - 25 bps drops in 2001 alone. ABX tanked in Feb-March. I think Greenspan would have thrown in a few 50 basis pointers during the last 5 months. It's just my opinion and as we all know, that is what this entire industry is built on, i.e. art versus science. |
|
|
 |
 Omega
|
|
| Total Posts: 261 |
| Joined: Jul 2006 |
| |
|
Agree with you there Roddy..The banks only have themselves to blame. And now they are being bailed out by the Fed..and like you say..this crisis hasnt come any where near 98 levels yet....Talk about Moral hazard....If the Fed bails out the banks this time around then what is to stop banks next time doing something even more stupid knowing full well the Fed will bail them out.....
Lending money to people with no collateral, no jobs, no credit history in the belief in 2 years time they can suddenly afford 10%+Libor on the loan........ |
|
|
|
 |
 Energetic
|
| Forum Captain |
| Total Posts: 1381 |
| Joined: Jun 2004 |
| |
|
I think Greenspan would have thrown in a few 50 basis pointers during the last 5 months.
Eric, dude ...  |
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong. - H. L. Mencken |
|
 |
 IAmEric
|
| Phorgy PhynanceBanned |
| Total Posts: 2961 |
| Joined: Oct 2004 |
| |
|
Look at the data man! If anyone should be frustrated, it should be me. I don't blame people for talking their books though.
Edit: Here is the data for 2001
2001
December 11 - Rate cut 25 bps to 1.75 November 6 - Rate cut 50 bps to 2.00 October 2 - Rate cut 50 bps to 2.50 September 17 - Rate cut 50 bps to 3.00 August 21 - Rate cut 25 bps to 3.50 June 27 - Rate cut 25 bps to 3.75 May 15 - Rate cut 50 bps to 4.00 April 18 - Rate cut 50 bps to 4.50 March 20 - Rate cut 50 bps to 5.00 January 31 - Rate cut 50 bps to 5.50 January 3 - Rate cut 50 bps to 6.00 |
|
|
|
 |