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Does anyone have any strong insight/opinions into future pricing direction for CME/IMM seats? Ex, continued run & hide depreciation through EOY as prop continues to slow &or diversify outside cme products, or settle here? Currently an IMM equity owner after a few lease terms post the large '08 haircuts. Lately have been diversifying enough volume over various other non-IMM products that a full CME lease will perhaps make better sense. Have been slowly trimming down roundtrip freq over the years on main instruments, so there are periods of the year where I'm likely to be in difficult balance zone between volume savings vs offsetting SE tax obligations. Unfortunately find myself in a no-mans land volume clip that fails to provide a clear-cut decision, hence my curiosity about seat price directions. In hindsight wish I had stuck with leasing, but that was not an easy call as I had more ambitious/different plans at the time and figured buying into such a price collapse (~70%) would be workable. Still laugh about the CME rep telling me @ time you are "buying at the next 10yr bottom."
Debating whether to dump it now (decent size bath @ current bid) and selectively use leases for terms of interest. Several old-timers @ xchange told me to hold onto it for now, lease it out, get a 6+month block lease of a CME, and dump the IMM into strength next year 2Q. Just not too confident there will be increasing demand, and can't help but think they may be talking their book (one of them is sitting on a larger (~700K) haircut as he bought an equity in '07). I'm a smaller non-opm operation now based in Jackson Hole, and just don't have many solid Chicago side connections to really get some good discussion on this. Admittedly feel like I'm flying a bit blind. Figured this may be good place to start. Tx |
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AndyM
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| Total Posts: 2179 |
| Joined: Mar 2004 |
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I have no idea, but looking at the big picture, I see rates ---> zero everywhere and stuck there leading to IR volumes falling hard; less dramatic but significant falloff in FX as IR differentials taken out of the equation. Deleveraging, increased regulation, increased costs of doing biz all point to lower volumes over time.
I'd love to be proven wrong, but that's my slightly pessimistic take; finance topped out in 06/07, and the heydays aren't coming back.
BUT there are no bad securities, only bad prices, so how much of this is in the price? |
I used to be disgusted; now I try to be amused... |
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