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Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12681
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2013-12-11 20:07
Damn, I'm gonna go buy me some of those litcoins!

Chiral is Tyler Durden

jslade


Total Posts: 1093
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2013-12-11 21:21
"if ANYONE can do, why we cannot."

Ripple is probably a lot like the JPM thing. It shows some promise for OTC trading.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

nikol


Total Posts: 423
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2013-12-11 23:34
> It shows some promise for OTC trading.

1 year Bitcoin swap vs "iCloud mining capacity" with hashrate as fixing? (and bla-bla)

jslade


Total Posts: 1093
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2013-12-12 20:47
No; Ripple is useful for trading debt.
It has little to do with the whole "hash rate mining" bullshit of BTC, other than the fact that it uses cryptography.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

nikol


Total Posts: 423
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2013-12-12 23:43
Ripple is a very good thing. Thanks.

EDITED: reminds 'rip-off'.

nikol


Total Posts: 423
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2013-12-23 23:16

iclandic miners

Current daily global BC-production is worth 1.8 Mio EUR (@500 eur/BC)

curvefitter


Total Posts: 124
Joined: Oct 2007
 
Posted: 2013-12-25 14:17
credit where credit is due: BTC is probably the most interesting book to watch on xmas, even if volume is 1/10th what it normally is...

Steve: did you use mtgox to trade?

nikol


Total Posts: 423
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2013-12-30 23:45
Narvik (Norwey) has 3.7 eurocents/kWh and permafrost as free cooling to maintain overclocking.

Steve Castle


Total Posts: 306
Joined: Sep 2010
 
Posted: 2014-01-10 09:48
I used bitstamp. MtGox took about a month to set up my account. I have both, but MtGox's settlement issues bother me. Bitstamp was 7 days or less.

I exited my "position" (in quotes because it was small) after about 10 days I think, maybe it was just over 2 weeks.

bitstamp was efficient, I got the prices quoted and settlement was not a problem. When I exited, I was thinking of crossing to MtGox, but the day I decided to exit the spread wasn't all that high as it was after one of the crashes. So that means I have no experience with MtGox.

If anyone is still watching, there's a lot of drama at the moment because one of the mining groups is approaching 50%. Once you get over 50%, you can poison the transaction data. Apparently they are capping at 49% because it's bad for business. I have no idea why they would not just steal a few million of coin and cash out, i dont even think there is any way they could be caught.

I just wanted to make a few bucks on coin mania, but I think I'm done with bitcoin.

I'm heavily invested in Coinye, they are the wave of the future. Cool

in the words of one such quant ‘were on the whole either less quanted or not quanted at all’.

Praetorian


Total Posts: 224
Joined: Apr 2009
 
Posted: 2014-01-10 10:45
I like Bitcoin more and more and set up a stat arb program to systematically trade. I like immature markets, because they are much more inefficient. Yes, the exchanges are technically not state of the art, but compared with mature markets, I consider them as much fairer. There are no collocated microwave arbitrageurs that get special handling. Bitstamp seems to be the best exchange. MtGox verified my account in 2 hours after I had to wait too long and accused them of stealing my money and threatened with a lawyer ;).

curvefitter


Total Posts: 124
Joined: Oct 2007
 
Posted: 2014-01-10 15:20
more than stat arbs it seems like the name of the game here would be interexchange arbs.

I'm currently gathering M1 data for about 20 western exchanges, if anybody has spare server capacity we can monitor everything in realtime; i hear having access to chinese markets helps..

AndyM


Total Posts: 2319
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2014-01-10 15:22
Steve, what's stopping groups colluding to control more than 50%?

I used to be disgusted; now I try to be amused...

Peerless


Total Posts: 108
Joined: Aug 2012
 
Posted: 2014-01-10 15:40
@AndyM,
I'm not Steve but nothing stops them except the ideal of a digital
currency and the fact that if they control more than 50% the security
factor is lost (or at least seriously endangered) thus killing their cash cow.

@Curvefitter,
Interexchange arb? Say you buy 1 btc at 800USD on btc-e, transfer it
to Mt Gox and sell it at 920. Nice you ve got yourself some 120 profit
but then it takes up to 6 *weeks* to get your money back from Mt Gox.
On other exchanges the difference of prices is smaller but you'd still
have to wait, how many confirmations it is? 6? that is one hour, will
the spread remain?
Maybe you have digged the thing deeper or are thinking of something
else (but that's what interexchange arb sounds to me). I have no clue
how to overcome this operational hurdle but hey I'm an amateur. Tongue out

Funny thing though sometimes (not rarely) I have seen the bid being
much higher than the ask.

Cheng


Total Posts: 2835
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2014-01-10 15:47
AndyM, some explanations can be found here:

Bitcoin at Stackexchange.

The whole thingy is related to the Byzantine General Problem

"Flammandus et Contemptus / Seyn Todt in Schwartz "

Steve Castle


Total Posts: 306
Joined: Sep 2010
 
Posted: 2014-01-10 19:20
Yeah, that Mt. Gox settlement delay is insane. Ideally you want to round-trip the spread, and that settlement delay makes it impossible, meaning you need to put a large amount of capital at risk to make a real return. I'd rather play with house money.

When BTC crashed, it was showing no or negative MtGox-BTC spread, and BTC crashes about once a month right now. It's still a coinflip, but so far its' bouncing between 600 and 1000.

I was thinking of setting up buys at 750, sells at 1000, and taking the spread when it's > 10%.

It's fun to play with, just because it's so crazy. I'm not convinced it has true value as a payment system at the moment, but there seems to be some retail uptake.


What's really missing is a borrowing facilitiy. People have tried to float "bonds" backed by hash power, or 5% per week coupon bonds to fund arb strategies. This is totally doable with the spread is so high, and 5% per week is great, I'd take that if there were no risk. But all borrowing in BTC is without recourse on default, so I haven't invested in any of these "bonds", they are the ideal ponzi scheme device. The return is possible, sucker in people with smaller payouts on lower investments, wait till people invest a significant amount, and close shop. I still think these scams are the best "arbs" in this market.

I like BTC for the same reasons mentioned: it's just the wild west. No rules, no regulations, just mania. I've read a lot about that period in the US, and it's fun to see it actually happen.

Truly, if I had real capital, I would try to create a BTC denominated borrowing facility. The market is lacking this, and this is facilitating the majority of the friction in my mind. And you'd be naturally short the market if you wanted to be, which isn't so bad with all the crashing that happens.

in the words of one such quant ‘were on the whole either less quanted or not quanted at all’.

eläin


Total Posts: 60
Joined: Jun 2010
 
Posted: 2014-01-11 13:14
some insight on the 51% mining group thing.
https://ghash.io/ghashio_press_release.pdf

nikol


Total Posts: 423
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2014-01-27 22:25
arrests of 2 BC execs

ast4


Total Posts: 390
Joined: Aug 2007
 
Posted: 2014-02-07 20:43
Mt. Gox halts withdrawals

Friend of mine pinged me earlier with this: "Imagine what would happen to forex markets if DB (they do 30% of fx daily volume) came out with an announcement that basically said "yeah... we had a technical glitch. So we're not going to be settling any of our trades until some unspecified date in the future... we aren't gonna tell u when that date is but u can still trade with us""

It's starting to smell like sushi around here..

"Mathematicians are machines for turning coffee into theorems!"

HockeyPlayer


Total Posts: 125
Joined: Nov 2005
 
Posted: 2014-02-10 16:47
> There are no collocated microwave arbitrageurs that get special handling.

What sort of special handling do people get?

Menascyn


Total Posts: 23
Joined: Jan 2014
 
Posted: 2014-02-10 19:30
>What sort of special handling do people get?

Coin shaped chocolates with Bitcoin wrapping, respectively.

Steve Castle


Total Posts: 306
Joined: Sep 2010
 
Posted: 2014-02-21 22:18
Anyone trading the Winkdex? Any idea why they didn't call it the Winkledex?

I assume the answer is no, but hey, maybe someone is?

in the words of one such quant ‘were on the whole either less quanted or not quanted at all’.

jslade


Total Posts: 1093
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2014-02-25 03:51
This doesn't bode well:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/209050732/MtGox-Situation-Crisis-Strategy-Draft

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

YukaRedux
Now with added evil

Total Posts: 650
Joined: Dec 2004
 
Posted: 2014-02-25 06:13
Public website is down, trading disabled (http://i.imgur.com/o7KKjrM.png) and they nuked their Twitter feed last night...

Patience is just desperation disguised as a virtue.

svisstack


Total Posts: 303
Joined: Feb 2014
 
Posted: 2014-02-25 18:24
eläin, I really like way you analyzed it because I got similar thinking results, before I even registered to that forum.

In upcoming days I want create some pros/cons-like list of currencies to create investment portfolio/insights based on that, after mt.gox bankruptcy will be probably good time to enter digital currency market (after price drop + some time to cooldown panic).

I read something like that on ripple Wikipedia website:
Ripple validates accounts and balances instantly for payment transmission and delivers payment notification with very little latency (within a few seconds)

Did you researching your analysis deeper?

Time well wasted.

Menascyn


Total Posts: 23
Joined: Jan 2014
 
Posted: 2014-02-25 19:00
http://blog.coinbase.com/post/77766809700/joint-statement-regarding-mtgox
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