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jslade


Total Posts: 1172
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2012-08-12 02:12
It seems nobody knows about this guy but Norwegians, and Norwegians barely know what he looks like (he's known for being the highest income Norwegian on the public tax returns). He's an electricity trader who has done very well for himself.

Link to google translated Norwegian article
Link to google translated Norwegian article
Link to google translated Norwegian article

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Nonius
Founding Member
Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12779
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-15 12:04
interesting, but if thats denominated in Krona, not THAT much.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

jslade


Total Posts: 1172
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2012-08-15 16:02
Norwegian Krones; not Swedish Krona.
Clearing a quarter billion dollars in four years (1.2b NOK) seems like a lot of lutefisk to me.

Anyone have data on Norwegian electricity futures? I know a little about Nordpool, but don't really know the lay of the land over there (like, can you hedge with long term futures, rather than the weird 24 hour spot futures on Nordpool). I'm assuming electricity spot is ridiculously seasonal, based on the weather in the couple of major cities they have in Norway.

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Nonius
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Nonius Unbound
Total Posts: 12779
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-15 22:41
yes, i mispelled. my bro lives in Trondheim and he ddid mention that it's curious that tax returns are public record.

dont know about electricity futures.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

granchio


Total Posts: 1540
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-16 09:21
public tax records, interesting.
i am not sure why it seems to be a taboo in anglo-saxon societies, given that in theory they attach no shame to wealth.
it could be a fairly gentle and elegant way to address some issues.

"Deserve got nothing to do with it" - Clint

NIP247


Total Posts: 545
Joined: Feb 2005
 
Posted: 2012-08-16 09:44
Public Tax Records in Scandi countries are due to Right to Information held by the government. The original reason has nothing to do with "social control" of people's fortune-

In my opinion, it needs to be reviewed to differentiate between state affairs and private affairs, as long as the individual has access to information about him held by the state.

Today, the "rich lists" are a haven for professional kidnappers and blackmailers in these countries...

On your straddle, done on the puts, working the calls...

nsande


Total Posts: 624
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-16 10:00

Nordpool has daily, weekly, monthly and yearly contracts.

Yes, there are seasonal fluctuations. Demand is high during winter, i.e. most power is used for heating. It can get pretty cold here. Cry

One big influence is the weather, i.e. the temperature affects the demand and the amount of rain affects the level in the water reservoirs. Almost all power generation in Norway is hydroelectric.

 


"Det nya räknesättet Aggression: - Ett plus ett är jävlar i mig fem!" "Alcohol and Calculus don't mix - never drink and derive"

jslade


Total Posts: 1172
Joined: Feb 2007
 
Posted: 2012-08-17 00:10
@nonius: just checking: Norse moneys are bigger than Swedish moneys.

@nsande: Thanks for this information. The scuttlebutt I get from my Norwegian pals is that this guy is a huge consumer of weather and weather forecasting data. My own researches into this general space is that residential demand is a piece of piss to forecast on an hourly level with a decent weather forecast + simple seasonality. Industrial/commercial is usually easily modeled with seasonality. Aggregate (I only talk about the other stuff, as it was some old paid work): with a year's worth of temperature and demand data and a perfect weather forecast, I can get ~1% MAPE everywhere I've looked; better if you include humidity and wind. Most of the uncertainty in the day ahead forecast is weather uncertainty. I've never looked at the futures data, as nobody paid me to do so, but I'm assuming there are all kinds of opportunities here if there are futures traded on the right demand aggregates. Norway looks like a great place to do this, since it is sparsely populated and weather is *very* important there. Never thought of the hydro thing, but it makes perfect sense.

As for the public tax records; google on "The Law of Jante" or the word "passelig" some time. It drives my young Norwegian pals to expatriation.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_Jante

"Learning, n. The kind of ignorance distinguishing the studious."

Nonius
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Total Posts: 12779
Joined: Mar 2004
 
Posted: 2012-08-18 02:14
that jante shit looks number sixian sort of.

Chiral is Tyler Durden

Hugin


Total Posts: 9
Joined: Jan 2008
 
Posted: 2012-08-28 14:40

@jslade: Interesting, thanks for sharing the articles.

One thing you may need to consider is that the Scandinavian (and to some extent the northern European) electricity market is quite connected. So you probably need to model usage in the whole region. And this will probably become more important since it seems all of northern Europe looks at Norway for balancing the wind power when the wind is not blowing. Denmark does this already and with Germany closing down nuclear there are discussions on improving the connections from Norway/Sweden to Denmark/Germany.

I guess price impact will also depend upon the current state of the power generation system, especially (as nsande already stated) the current and predicted water levels in the reservoirs, but also on the need of transportation between the regions. Last year when nuclear in Sweden was producing much less than usual, prices soared due to limitations in transportation capacity from northern Sweden/Norway. In short production capacity and where it is placed will have impact on the regional price moves.

Regarding Jante it is sadly true enough, especially for smaller towns and villages. I grew up in one of those places and if someone had the nerve to do something, like starting a new business, people actually wanted him to fail even though they would benefit personally if he was successful. However, in my experience it is much better in the bigger cities.


Maggette


Total Posts: 1107
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2012-08-29 17:01
According to your name and avatar you are from norge:)?

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

Hugin


Total Posts: 9
Joined: Jan 2008
 
Posted: 2012-08-29 18:28
No, Sweden actually. But I have worked in Norway if that counts... 

Azx


Total Posts: 39
Joined: Sep 2009
 
Posted: 2018-09-13 15:14
Einar Aas is facing bankruptcy following multi-million euro default.

nsande


Total Posts: 624
Joined: Apr 2004
 
Posted: 2018-09-14 16:00
The guy is brilliant but somehow also incredibly stupid. Why did he not put his trading activities in a limited company. Now he (and his family) stands to lose everything.
It seems that he had a huge bet on the spread between Norwegian and German power prices. The spread moved a lot on Monday and he could not cover the margin calls. Nasdaq closed his position and he lost over 100M EUR.

"Det nya räknesättet Aggression: - Ett plus ett är jävlar i mig fem!" "Alcohol and Calculus don't mix - never drink and derive"

Jurassic


Total Posts: 208
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-09-16 14:40
does anyone know of a good primer on power markets?

Igor


Total Posts: 11
Joined: Nov 2014
 
Posted: 2018-10-21 02:08
Power is regional. Europe will have different dynamics than Northeast Americas.

RBC has a decent primer on Northeast power (and natgas) if you are their client.
I'd also recommend browsing public sites of regional operators (nyiso.com, etc.) for introductory guides.

"..tempus casumque in omnibus"

Jurassic


Total Posts: 208
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2018-10-21 22:12
why are power and nat gas lumped together ??

Patrik
Founding Member

Total Posts: 1358
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Posted: 2018-10-22 00:55
natgas + CCGT plant = electricity

(and if natgas plants are the marginal plants in the production stack the link between natgas and power is pretty strong)

Capital Structure Demolition LLC Radiation

nikol


Total Posts: 679
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2019-05-05 23:06
Somewhat speculative and dramatic description.

"How a Lone Norwegian Trader Shook the World’s Financial System"

Reaction from BIS
https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1812x.htm

EspressoLover


Total Posts: 368
Joined: Jan 2015
 
Posted: 2019-05-07 16:56
Not directly related to Einas Aas... but recently listened to this podcast from some guys who build trading models for the electricity market.

Their take is that renewables and battery storage have completely changed the nature of the market. Basically all the old rules about trading electricity have gone out the window. Everyone's pretty much feeling around blind with these new market dynamics.

Thought about this thread. Maybe Einar Aas' belly-up was because he lost his edge in a changing market.

Good questions outrank easy answers. -Paul Samuelson

Jurassic


Total Posts: 208
Joined: Mar 2018
 
Posted: 2019-05-07 17:24
I thought the technology of batteries hadnt improved at all and largely the reason we dont have electric cars yet (as mainstream) and our phones only hold charge for a day?

Maggette


Total Posts: 1107
Joined: Jun 2007
 
Posted: 2019-05-08 08:56
Hi ES, we would need to take this offline, but I can assure you that at least in European electricity markets nothing has changed because of battery storage.

Renewables and effects of the EEG (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_Renewable_Energy_Sources_Act) are pain in the ass for some old school players. Emission markets are a strange beast etc. There are a lot of things going on, that changed the markets

Don't know about the US, but the amount of installed battery storage is more or less insignificant for the wholesale market.

Ich kam hierher und sah dich und deine Leute lächeln, und sagte mir: Maggette, scheiss auf den small talk, lass lieber deine Fäuste sprechen...

nikol


Total Posts: 679
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2019-05-08 10:53
@Maggette

Re: renewable, especially in Germany.

Sudden loud voice.

"no amount of marketing could change the poor physics of resource-intensive and land-intensive renewables."

The Reason Renewables Can't Power Modern Civilization Is Because They Were Never Meant To

ronin


Total Posts: 446
Joined: May 2006
 
Posted: 2019-05-08 10:58
I second that.

Renewables are heavily subsidised, so in a way they do distort the market because they are subsidised. But they are tiny in the grand scheme of things, and the distorsion is tiny. Maybe they are felt in some local markets somewhere, but that's it.

The only exception is hydro which is neither subsidised nor tiny. But it is not exactly new either.

"There is a SIX am?" -- Arthur

nikol


Total Posts: 679
Joined: Jun 2005
 
Posted: 2019-05-08 11:27
Sorry to hijack it even farther.

Hydro and Nuclear are the only viable options, indeed.

Consecutively, I am asking myself if we are doomed to stay at the Earth :(

How can you fly hydro-powered rocket? ))
Though, there are some developments of atomic engines.

--
Any long standing subsidization of the market leads to market distortion and corruption because it involves decisions of bureaucrats.

Clean or dirty energy: evidence of corruption in the renewable energy sector
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